Archive for the ‘ Market Analysis ’ Category

Another Loss For The Year – It’s Time to Cash in the 401k…

So, I was going over my personal financial statements today.  I make it a habit to do this at the beginning of every month, and being that it is the beginning of the year, I also like to spend some time looking at how we did over the past year with our finances.  I really had a good laugh when I took a look at how my 401k performed this past year (although I should be crying). 

At first glance, I thought I had done pretty good because my account balance is actually up from where it stood at the beginning of the year.  However, after looking a little closer, the reason my balance is up is because of the loan payments (I quit contributing 3 years ago) I made to the account.  If you take out my loan payments, I had a net loss of $429.53 for the year.  Really, a loss?!?!? 

So I decided to look into things a little further.  With my 401k I’ve taken a simplistic approach and I simply invest in the S&P500 because most funds don’t beat the S&P on a yearly basis and it really simplifies everything.  So, if you look at the S&P 500, we started the year at 1271.89 and it closed the year at 1257.60 for a loss of 1.1%.  So, it makes sense that I lost money.

But I didn’t stop there…I decided to look at my 5 year performance.  To my dismay the loss has been even bigger over the last 5 years – the S&P500 is down 11.3% since January 2007.

Okay, so I haven’t made any money over the past 5 years, so I decided to go all the way back to when I first opened my 401k.  I’ve been at my job since January of 2000, and I opened my 401k in April of 2000.  To my dismay, the S&P500 is down over 16% since April of 2000.  This represents an annual loss of approximately 1.3% every single year I’ve been investing in the S&P 500.  At this rate I’m doomed to be greeting shoppers at Wal-Mart. 

Honestly, this simple exercise of looking over my 401k performance over the last year has confirmed to me why Kelly and I have quit investing in the stock market and we’re putting all of our money into real estate. 

Now, let’s compare this putrid performance in the stock market with just one of our property investments – 630 Lydia in Pontiac, MI.

We purchased this property in August of 2010 for $17,500 (yes that figure is right).  When we purchased, we took out a loan of $12,000 on the property, so our actual investment in the property was $5500.  So let’s take a look at how we did with this property – here are the actual numbers from this past year:

Rental Income – $11,815.92

Property Expenses – $6,890.68

Mortgage – $1,320.00

Cash Flow $3,605.24

So we made $3,605.24 on this one property last year making a 65% return on our $5,500 investment – a tad better than what I got out of my 401k.  Perhaps I might be able to skip the Wal-Mart gig after all. 

Honestly, I’ve been thinking about cashing in my 401k for a while now and putting the funds into real estate.  Even with the penalties and taxes I would have to pay to cash it in, I’m confident I will be much farther ahead buying a few more rental properties.   After looking at the performance over the past year, I’ve decided it’s time.  The 401k is going to get cashed in and we’re going to be purchasing some more property.

Stay tuned…

We Have a Deal, But No Money…Just Yet

 3 bed / 1 bath Brick Ranch with Basement & 2-Car Garage

As we talked about earlier in the week, we spent the good part of this past Saturday putting together the numbers on a rehab in Waterford, Michigan, and the numbers looked good.  The property shown in the picture above is a great little 3 bed / 1 bath brick ranch with a full basement and 2-car garage that really just needs some updating.  The house is solid from top to bottom with no structural issues and the roof is great.  Everything is telling us this is a great little property, and so we submitted the offer on Saturday night. 

Since then we’ve been back and forth with the seller, and right now we’re at a bit of a stalemate.  Originally we had planned to put the property under contract with a financing contingency because we were planning to fund the deal through a hard money lender.  With the analysis we have put together I am confident that we could obtain the funding, but I cannot be 100% certain, so we need the financing contingency.  This is a major issue for the seller, and they are requesting a $5000 deposit with no contingencies on the offer.  In addition to this, they are asking that we close in 14 days. 

Unfortunately, we’re not in a position to put the property under contract right now, but if we are able to locate private funding, we could easily snatch this deal up and be off and running with the rehab.

Right now we’ve completed a full analysis of the property and we’re reviewing this analysis with a few private lenders.  We don’t have the funding lined up just yet, so if you are interested in partnering with us on this deal,  we would be happy to discuss the full details with you as well.  For now, here is a summary of the numbers:

  • After Repair Value = $95,000
  • Purchase Price = $38,000
  • Purchase Costs = $1,700
  • Repairs = $21,400
  • Holding Costs = $2,400
  • Selling Costs = $7,600

Potential Profit = $23,900

To see our full analysis, you can download it here.

If you are interested in partnering with us, please feel free to contact me at todd@michiganpropertybuyer.com or give me a call at 248-917-4416.

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Getting to Know the Pontiac Real Estate Market

Last week we told you about our plans for Real Estate Investing in Pontiac, and over the weekend we spent a good amount of time getting to know this market.  So, how did we do that?   Well, quite frankly we got in the car and we started driving around, and boy were we surprised!  For those of you that know Michigan, and particularly Pontiac, please put an image in your head of what the average house in Pontiac looks like.  I pictured seeing neighborhoods filled with run-down homes, with boarded up or broken windows, and lots of overgrown weeds and tall grass.  Houses like this:

Well we did find houses like that, and in fact that picture was one of the houses we saw.  But like I said we were surprised…we were surprised because we also found houses like this:

In fact, we saw whole neighborhoods filled with houses like this.  Now, I’m not going to sugarcoat things.  We did find areas of Pontiac that were exactly what we expected, but the big takeaway was that there really are some great areas of Pontiac to invest in. 

So, having all this first hand knowledge is great, but it’s really easy to forget the areas we drove around in, so we spent a lot of time documenting the various areas we drove through.  Here’s how we did it:

  • We systematically drove through neighborhoods covering many parts of Pontiac.
  • As we drove around, we noted all of the vacant properties and the homes that were for sale.  For each of these homes we took the address, phone number (if listed), recorded comments about the house, and took a photograph.
  • After we got home, we put organized all of this information into a spreadsheet

So, this was helpful, but it still didn’t give us a clear indication of where the good areas of Pontiac were.  We essentially had a list of properties and comments about them, but it was hard to really put it all together.  So how could we make better use of this information to make it immediately clear where the good areas of Pontiac were?

Well, the answer was to put the information on a map.  Now, we had approximately 75 different properties that we documented, so it was going to be pretty tedious to map each of them, and I figured there had to be a web application out there that would map multiple properties at once.  Well, as it turns out there is.  I found a great little website called BatchGeo.com.  This website allows you to take your list of addresses, copy them into the website, and it maps them all at once.  And, as if that wasn’t helpful enough, you can also add categories of information (i.e. our comments about the houses) that will show up on the map when you click on each map points.  So, after using this site, we ended up with a map that looked like this:

This worked out perfect great!  We now have a map that we can really start to analyze.  But it got even better when I noticed something.  See that little button that says “Google Earth KML”.  If you click this button it allows you to save a file of the plotted addresses that is readable by Google Earth.  If you haven’t heard of Google Earth, click on the link and download the software.  It’s free, and I think it’s one of the coolest pieces of software that Google has put out. 

So I saved the file, and then loaded it into Google Earth and it worked!  All the addresses were plotted perfectly in Google Earth.  This was a big step forward because now we have a map that we can continually update as we learn more and more about the Pontiac market.  The other great thing is that Google Earth has lots of cool features that allow you to customize your maps.  So, to help us visualize where the good areas were, we started to look at our notes about each property on the map, and we were able to see the patterns of where the good areas were.  So using Google Earth we started to draw red, yellow and green zones on the map using the “Polygon” feature.  This feature allows you to outline areas, and you can color-code these areas with a transparent color.  So here is what our current map looks like with all of the zones we have researched: 

Note: the actual map has the zones color coded red / yellow / green to indicated the bad / questionable / good areas of Pontiac.

This was an excellent exercise for us because in a relatively short amount of time, we were able to learn a great deal about the Pontiac market.  Plus, we now have a great tool that we can use anytime we come across a new property.  We can just map the property in Google Earth, and we’ll know immediately whether we want to consider investing in the property.

So stay tuned…more to come on Pontiac investing…

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Real Estate Investing in Pontiac, MI

Hello, welcome back.  Today, as the title indicates, we’re going to talk about real estate investing in Pontiac, Michigan.  When Kelly and I first got started, we probably would have told you that there was no way we would ever want to invest in Pontiac because let’s just say it’s not the best area of Oakland County.  And, in fact, many people we have talked to have tried to shy us away from investing in Pontiac.

However, our experience to date with Pontiac has been pretty positive.  As you may know from this blog, the latest property we bought was in Pontiac, and we think it is an excellent investment property.  The price of the property was very low ($21 per square foot) but the rent we collect is very similar to what we would collect if the same sized home was in a different area.  These two factors make the return on our investment very high.

So, if your main goal is cashflow, it absolutely makes sense to look at investing in Pontiac.  There are many great deals, and because the prices are so low, you can generate a lot of cashflow by purchasing properties in Pontiac.

Unfortunately, our main goal right now isn’t to generate cashflow but rather we are trying to build capital by buying and sellering properties we invest in.  This means that we really need to be buying for a low price and selling for a higher price, and until now, we really haven’t figured out how you could do this in Pontiac.

About 2 weeks ago, we were approached by an out-of-state investor and they were really interested in the investment activities we had in Pontiac.  We had a brief telephone conversation and they mentioned that their company’s main focus was to produce “Turnkey Rental Properties” that they could sell to their buyer list.  This week we set up a conference call with them, and discussed in more detail exactly what they’re doing, and how we could help.  Essentially, the way they work involves the following steps:

  1. Purchase the property at a discount
  2. Rehab the property
  3. Put a tenant into the property
  4. Sell property with tenant / property management in place

This company has been very successful at doing this.  In fact they have been so successful that they are approaching investors like us to help them find more properties.  So for now, we are going to be acting as a bird dog for them to send them properties and collect a finder fee for any properties that they end up purchasing.  So using what we have learned to date about marketing for properties, we are going to set up the following marketing plan to find properties in Pontiac:

  1. Use bandit signs in the areas of Pontiac that we are targeting
  2. Use yellow letter campaigns to target specific properties
  3. Post online classified ads indicating that we are looking for properties in Pontiac
  4. Search online classified ads for properties in Pontiac that meet our criteria
  5. Generate website leads by setting up squeeze pages
  6. Hand out business cards in and around the areas of Pontiac we are targeting
  7. We’re going to drive the neighborhoods looking for properties
  8. Network with real estate professionals that are focused on Pontiac

We think this is a comprehensive marketing plan, and as you can see, we will be using many of the things we have talked about in our blog before.  This will be a great way for us to continue to apply the things that we know work, and in the process we will be learning a new investing technique from a well established company.  Eventually, I think we are going to try out a few turnkey properties for ourselves because, just like the Lydia property, the numbers just make sense.

So, stay tuned, we will definitely have more discussion on this topic…

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Day 52 – Choose the Right Comps for Your Real Estate Deals

Today is Day 52 in our drive for $60,000 in 60 days through real estate investing. As we told you yesterday we have a few deals that we are looking at that just came in over the last couple days. We briefly discussed how to determine the After Repair Value (ARV) in Day 21 – Anatomy of A Deal – Part 2 Analyze the Numbers and this involves looking at other properties that have sold or are currently on the market.  This does two things, it gives you an idea of what the market is willing to pay, but it also gives you an idea of what your competition will be if you are planning to rehab & resell the property.

Where do You Find Comps?

The best place to look for comps is in your local MLS (Multiple Listing Service).  The unfortunate thing is that you need to have a realtor license to gain access to the MLS, so if you are not a realtor, you will have to have a real estate agent pull the comps for you.  Neither Kelly or I are real estate agents, and we have really found this method of pulling comps to be problematic, so we are using alternative methods. 

Sites like Zillow.com or Trulia.com can provide you with a list of properties that have recently sold, and the nice thing about these websites is that they also put the properties on a map.  So you can quickly get an indication of where the properties that have sold are at.  Zillow even gives you what is called a “Zestimate” which is their indication of the value of the property.  Be careful with this number though because we have found the accuracy of this number to vary greatly.  It should really be a starting point, and your full analysis should tell you the true value of the property. 

Zillow & Trulia will also give you properties that are currently on the market, but generally we like to use Realtor.com to find a good list of properties that are currently on the market.  Generally Realtor.com seems to be kept more up-to-date on the properties that are for sale.

Guidelines for Selection Comps

Whenever I speak with someone who wants to sell their property, I always ask them what they think the value of the property is, and how they arrived at that number.  More times than not, I get a response like this:

Well, the guy across the street just sold his house last month for $200,000 so I think mine is worth $200,000 too…

Now, what the seller doesn’t tell you is that their house is half the size, was built 50 years earlier and has a completely outdated interior.  Nevertheless, because the guy across the street sold his home for $200,000 their house must be worth $200,000 as well.  This of course couldn’t be further from the truth.  The problem here is that the two properties are not at all comparable. 

Now, with Zillow, Trulia and Realtor.com you are going to have a pretty long list of comps to select from.  However most of the properties they provide you are not comparable, so you have to sort through them.  So what do we look for?  When selecting comparable properties, we normally look for the following in our comps:

  1. Size -  The square footage of the comparable property should be 20% higher or 20% lower than our subject property.  For example, if we were looking at a 1000sq ft home, we would look for comps that had between 800sq ft to 1200sq ft.
  2. Area – The properties must be in the same area.  Generally we don’t like to go out more than a half mile with our comp selection.  Additionally, I should mention that you should also look at what school district the properties are in.  Homes right across the street from each other can have different school districts and this can have a big impact on the value of the property.
  3. Sale Date – You should be looking at properties that have sold within the last 6 months, and the more recent the better.
  4. Age – The homes should be built within the same timeframe.  For instance you wouldn’t want to compare a home that was built in 2000 with a home that was built in 1950. 
  5. Construction – The properties you are comparing to should be of similar construction.  For example you do not want to compare a condo to a single family home.

Determine The Value

After you have selected the properties that have sold recently that are similar in size, age, area, and construction, you will want to calculate the price per square foot for each property.  This is done by simply dividing the sales price by the square footage of the home.  Then you will simply average these numbers to come up with the average price per square foot.  Simply multiply this number by the number of square feet that your prospective property has and this gives you the estimated value of the property.

Drive Your Comps

Normally you should have a pretty good idea of the value of the property at this point.  However, it really is a good idea for you to get out and drive by each of the comps you have selected.  We normally like to do this and give a simple rating of “Same”, “Nicer”, or “Worse” for each of the properties.  When we are doing this rating we are comparing to what our home will look like once we have completed all the repairs on the property and we are ready to sell.  Through this process you may find that you really should not be using some of the comps, and you can fine tune the value of the property.

I should mention that you don’t necessarily have to physically “drive the comps”.  In many cases you can do this virtually.  Google Maps has a feature called “Streetview” that will literally allow you to walk down the street.  You can type in the address of the property in question, and they will put you right in front of the house.  You can pan, rotate and zoom the screen and really get a good idea of the condition of the property right from your desk. 

Also many times Zillow, Trulia and Realtor.com have pictures and descriptions of  the properties.  This also serves as a great resource giving you very good insight into the condition of the properties right from your office.

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